Wednesday, 24 August 2016

Update on Commodity




News Round Up



Gold futures declined due to a weak trend overseas after a Federal Reserve official signaled that an increase in US interest rates is still possible this year, hurting demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven investment. Markets in wait ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen later this week that could provide clues about the timing of a U.S interest rate hike. Fed Chair Janet Yellen may provide fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike at a speech during an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. The annual Fed symposium has sometimes been used by Fed chairs to make important policy statements. The contract for October delivery was closed at Rs 31379.00, same as its previous closing of Rs 31379.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 9519.00 lots.
 
Crude-oil turned higher on Tuesday after a report indicated that Iran has shown willingness to work with other major crude producers to support the market. Prices had been trading lower as optimism for a production freeze faded and expectations of a ramp up in Iraqi and Nigerian production grew, but a report from Reuters sparked a reversal. Citing sources in the industry as well as at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the news agency reported that Iran is “sending positive signals” that it may support a joint effort to lift the oil market. The contract for September delivery was closed at Rs 3244.00, up by 1.00% or Rs 32.00 from its previous closing of Rs 3212.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 14030 lots.


Base metals were trading sideways in quiet conditions during Tuesday’s LME premarket while the summer slowdown continued to affect business and as commodities fell out of favour.
Poor premiums in China continued to see material arrive into LME Asian sheds. Copper stored in listed LME sheds in Busan jumped to its highest level since January 2013, data showed on Tuesday. Copper futures edged lower on MCX as speculators cut down their bets, amid low demand at the spot markets. Further, a weak trend in base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange (LME) and strengthening dollar sent commodities down as comments from a US Federal Reserve official bolstered speculation that borrowing costs may rise this year. The contract for August delivery was closed at Rs 314.05, down by 1.37% or Rs 2.79 from its previous closing of Rs 318.40. The open interest of the contract stood at 30795 lots.

Soyabean futures traded higher on NCDEX as speculators enlarged their positions on forecast of heavy rains in Madhya Pradesh, largest producer of soybean in the country. However, report of good production, higher edible oil imports and lower export demand for soymeal, capped some gains. The contract for October delivery was closed at Rs 3475.00, up by 0.55% or Rs 19.00 from its previous closing of Rs 3456.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 56000lots. Jeera futures traded higher on NCDEX due to rising demand from the countries like China and Bangladesh. Further, tight supply from the producing belts too fueled the uptrend.




Technical Levels



Gold


Support at 31200---31000 and resistance at 31450---31600
 
Break and sustain below 31200 will take to 31130---31080---31000. Two consecutive closes below 31000 will see more downside panic till 30700---30600 mark.  30600 act as major support in Gold else it could test its resistance level of 31450---31600 mark

Trade with levels only



Silver


Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 45400 will take to 43800---43300 and then to 42300

Any sharp rise will be selling opportunity in Silver for the downside target of 42300. Hurdle and stop loss above 47300


Crude Oil



Support at 3135 and Resistance at 3220

Close above 3220 will take it to 3250--3280 and then to 3320 mark in days to come else could test its support level of 3135 again

Further downside panic will see only close above 3135 mark

Trade with levels only


Copper


Support at 313 and Resistance at 319

Looks weak below 313 we can see downside panic 310---306 marks in days to come else could test its resistance level of 319 again. Fresh buying only above 319

Trade with levels only



Soyabean


Support at 3435 and resistance at 3550.

Two consecutive close below 3435 will take it to 3360—3310 mark in days to come else could test its resistance level of 3550.
Further upside rally only above 3550.




Economic Data and Event

Existing Home Sales – 07:30, Crude Oil Inventories – 08:30
























More will update soon...

Daily Currency Outlook








Dollar/Rupee

Dollar/rupee snapped three-day gain Tuesday on mostly selling by exporters tracking weak dollar ahead of Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole Symposium later this week.

Technical, USDINR retraced more than 0.20% and settled at 67.12 compare to previous close of 67.2650 levels. As per the view pair almost hit first predicted level 67.10. 

On the EOD chart USDINR trading on verge of its previous swing trend line and further correction is expect to come below 67.06, else positive consolidation is appear to take place for the level 67.25-67.35 again.


 May sell around 67.20-67.25 Target 67.06-66.90. Stop loss above 67.35.




EUR-INR August Future


Euro remained little impacted against the Rupee and dollar as eurozone flash PMI survey for August came broadly in line as broadcast, suggesting that the eurozone economy has not been too badly hit by the UK's vote to leave the European Union..


EURINR had a range bound trading day yesterday and after hitting a high 76.1625 settled at 76.00 levels. On the EOD chart pair yet trading above the 113% Fibonacci Retracement which is indicating for upside move in EURINR.   

Further, pair would need to trade below 75.75 in order to test 75.50-75.25 on the downside.




GBP-INR August Future

Pound traded up for second straight session Tuesday tracking weak dollar on caution ahead of Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen speech at Jackson Hole later this week

GBPINR extended its recent bullish trend and settled at 88.5275 with gain of 0.48%. Buy strategy given above 88.12 since 19 August was successful.  

 In near term GBPINR may remain bullish following to long bullish candle stick formation on EOD chart; however pair would need to trade above 88.70 in order to test 89.05-89.50 levels.


Else, any rise towards 88.55-88.60 could attract selling activities target 88.00-87.70.





JPY-INR August Future

Yen snapped two-day gains Tuesday as dollar weakened on caution ahead of Federal Reserve Chairperson, Janet Yellen speech at Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

JPYINR was unable to break its resistance 67.10, and consolidated around 67.00 levels yesterday. A formation of Doji candle stick is indicating for indecisive trend among JPYINR traders. However, pair yet trading above its medium term trend line support which is creating probability for the upside move towards 67.50-67.75.




§  Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today



Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
11:30am
EUR
German Final GDP q/q
0.30%
0.40%
Negative
2:00pm
GBP
BBA Mortgage Approvals
38.5K
40.1K
Negative
6:30pm
EUR
Belgian NBB Business Climate
1.1
1
Neutral

USD
HPI m/m
0.30%
0.20%
Positive
7:30pm
USD
Existing Home Sales
5.55M
5.57M
Negative
8:00pm
USD
Crude Oil Inventories
-0.7M
-2.5M
Neutral





More will Update soon..

 

Thought for the day








Image result for Thought for the day 




Tuesday, 23 August 2016

As expected... Cardamom flared like anything and hit 1200 mark





 
Cardamom.. Made a high of 1200. Our upper side target hit successfully.

Now what to expect???

Hurdle at 1210. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 1210 will see further upside rally till 1350---1380 and then to 1500+ mark in days to come.

Actual stop loss below 960 on closing basis. We are bullish from 920 and 970 mark.

Traders can try to get an opportunity to buy and accumulate Cardamom in panic around 1120---1080 with stop loss below 960 on closing basis for the upside target of 1500. 
















More will update soon...

Dollar Index little changed ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium




Dollar Index little changed ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium


Dollar/rupee gained 0.20% on Monday after comments from Federal Reserve officials raised the bets for a US rate hike in September. Adding to that, demand by oil importers too supported the demand for the greenback in the on-shore market while the dollar index little changed Tuesday as investors await the key meeting of the US Federal Reserve at Jackson Hole due later this week.  Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is also likely to deliver a speech later this w
eek.


Technical, USDINR failed to break its support 66.84 and recovered more than 0.21%, settled at 67.27 levels. On the EOD chart, pair settled below 50% Fibonacci Retracement level while formed a high wave doji candle stick both of which creating probability for downside move towards 67.00 and below again.

 Further, pair would need to trade above 67.40 in order to test 67.65-67.80.

May sell around 67.25-67.30 Target 67.10-66.90. Stop loss above 67.40
 

Market will focus on US durable goods order, second quarter GDP and new and existing home sales data for the health of the world's largest economy.  Meanwhile, US economic growth strengthened for the second month in a row in July, according Chicago Fed National Activity Index.



EUR-INR August Future

Euro traded down for the second trading day Monday tracking dollar strength against other major currencies following hawkish comments from key Federal Reserve officials that boosted likelihood of US rate hike this year.

After hitting a low of 75.78, EURINR saw pullback and tested 76.00 before closing at 75.9925 levels. On the EOD chart pair yet trading above the 113% Fibonacci Retracement which is indicating for upside move in EURINR.  Further, pair would need to trade above 76.00 in order to test 76.10-76.35 then 76.55. Stop loss below 75.85



GBP-INR August Future

Pound traded near two-week high Thursday after better than expected UK retail sales data amid weak dollar. Pound extended gains by breaching its highest level since Jul 5 after strong UK retail sales data amid tracking weakness in dollar

GBPINR extended its recent bullish trend and settled at 88.1650 with gain of 0.09%.  In near term GBPINR may take momentum upside move and may test 88.50-88.75 and above following to long bullish candle stick formation on EOD chart.

Buy above 88.32 Target 88.57/88.75. Stop loss below 88.15.




JPY-INR August Future

Yen slipped against the dollar for a second straight session Monday after comments from San Francisco Fed President, John William and Fed Vice Chairperson, Stanley Fisher over the weekend raised bets for a rate hike in near term.

After hitting a low of 66.62, JPYINR saw a pullback and tested 66.8950 before closing at 66.85 levels.  On the EOD chart pair yet trading above its medium term trend line support which is creating probability for the upside move towards 67.50-67.75.

Buy above 67.10 Target 67.45-67.80. Stop loss below 66.95.




§  Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today



Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
7:30am
JPY
Flash Manufacturing PMI
49.5
49.3
Positive
9:30am
JPY
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
-
-

12:30pm
EUR
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
49.1
48.6
Positive

EUR
French Flash Services PMI
50.6
50.5
Positive
1:00pm
EUR
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
53.7
53.8
Neutral

EUR
German Flash Services PMI
54.3
54.4
Negative
1:30pm
EUR
Flash Manufacturing PMI
52.1
52
Positive

EUR
Flash Services PMI
53
52.9
Positive
3:30pm
GBP
CBI Industrial Order Expectations
-9
-4
Negative
6:30pm
CNY
CB Leading Index m/m
-
0.50%
-
7:15pm
USD
Flash Manufacturing PMI
53.1
52.9
Positive
7:30pm
EUR
Consumer Confidence
-8
-8
Neutral

USD
New Home Sales
575K
592K
Negative

USD
Richmond Manufacturing Index
6
10
Negative
 


More will Update soon..