Friday, 29 April 2016

Update on Bullion, Base Metal and Energy






Gold



  As expected... Gold flared like anything and hit 30050 mark. We clearly indicated that if Gold unable to breach its support level of 29240 then we will see mind blowing rally in it

Now what to expect???

Support at 29700 and Resistance at 30120---30280
 
Still looks positive and could test its resistance level of 30120---30280 mark. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 29760 will take to 30500---30800+ mark in days to come
 
Support intact at 29700



Silver


  Above 40900... our target was 41400---41500 and then to 41800. Just made a high of 41768

Now what to expect???

Support at 41250---41000 and Resistance at 41800

Close above 41800 will take to 42400---42800+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 41250---41000 again
 
Further downside panic will see only close below 41000 mark
 
Trade with levels only
 
 

Copper



  Told to buy Copper around 325 with stop loss below 321. Today again we recommended buying around 329. Just made a high of 333.35

Now what to expect???

Support at 328 and Resistance at 334

Two consecutive closes above 334 will see further upside rally till 339---342+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 328 again

Trade with levels only



Nickel



Support at 590 and Resistance at 640

If it unable to breach its support level of 590 then it could test its resistance level of 625---640 again

Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 640 will take to ???

Close below 590 will take to 570---555 again

Traders can trade with levels only and wait for confirmation.... Anything seems will update via SMS



Aluminium



Not able to breach its support level of 108 and bounced back to 111.50 again. We recommended buying above 110.50

Now what to expect???

Two consecutive closes below 110.50 will take to 113---114.50+ mark in days to come 
 
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 108.00 mark

Trade with levels only



Crude oil



  Above 3030.... our target was 3090---3150. Just made a high of 3101

Now what to expect???

Support at 3060 and Resistance at 3120---3150
 
Those are holding long as per our level can book part profit and wait for fresh entry. We will not initiate any call right now as market is not in a condition to trade
 
Anything seems will update
 


Natural Gas



Support at 135 and Resistance at 141---148

Either side break or close with volume will decide further.... Till then traders can trade safely with levels only and wait for confirmation

Anything seems will update via SMS



Traders remain cautious in metal segment due to ahead of expiry. We will expect high volatility in it. 



















More will update soon...

Dollar index witnessed decent fall as per the bearish view given on 12 April 2016.










Dollar index drop towards 8 month low 


Dollar index fell Friday after the release of less than expected first quarter GDP data from the world's largest economy.  Dollar index fell to over 8 months low at 93.48, its lowest level since Aug 26. In near term and prices expected to test 93.18-92.90 next support

Dollar index witnessed decent fall and tested predicated level of 93.49 as per the bearish view given on 12 April 2016 - Dollar Index Bearish View given on 12 April 


The dollar fell sharply against other currencies, after data showing the US economy grew at its slowest rate in two years during the first quarter.


The Federal Reserve on Wednesday indicated it was in no hurry to raise interest rates in coming months, another factor weighing on the dollar.




U.S. Data Update


Gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic output, advanced at a 0.5% seasonally adjusted annualized rate in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said.

Slow first quarters followed by a rebound have been common in recent years, leaving hope for better months ahead. The US economy contracted in the opening quarter of 2014 and barely grew at the outset of 2015, only to bounce back and leave the economy on the same staid trajectory seen during much of the expansion. For all of 2015, GDP advanced 2.4%, the same as 2014.

Meanwhile, US seasonally adjusted initial claims for jobless benefits increased to 257,000, an increase of 9,000 from the revised level of the previous week, the US Labor Department said Thursday.






USD/JPY extends losses, down 3.71% since yesterday, after Bank of Japan surprises markets by maintaining status quo at policy



The yen jump towards an 18-month high against the dollar on Friday and trading at 107.32 levels after the Bank of Japan's decision the previous day to hold off from expanding its monetary stimulus.


Dollar/yen posts biggest single day fall in eight months Thursday after the Bank of Japan surprised the market by keeping interest rate and stimulus programme unchanged at its monetary policy review.

 Dollar/yen traded at Y107.34/$1 compared to the previous close of Y108.09/$1.
Japanese yen strengthened against the greenback most in a single day since Aug 28 2015 as Bank of Japan refrained from venturing deeper into negative rate territory.


The policy board governed by Haruhiko Kuroda decided by an 8-1 majority vote to hold its target of raising the monetary base at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion.
Contributing further to yen's strength was the US Fed comment that raised concerns about global slowdown, and thereby increasing demand for safer currencies like Yen.


While, JPY/INR jumped more than 3.73% following to the fall of USD-JPY.
Near term trend is expect to remain bullish following to the break out of previous swing high of 61.90, and any dip towards 61.90-62.00 may bring huge buying activities for the target 62.35-62.70 and above.








USD/INR falls slightly on likely FII inflows, weak dollar index

Dollar/rupee ends down snapping two days of losses Thursday on likely overseas funds outflow from local stocks tracking sell-off in Asian and European stocks as risk appetite plunged after Bank of Japan refrained from easing its monetary policy further against the market expectations.


After hitting a low of 66.7150, USD-INR saw a consolidation around 66.85 and settled at 66.90 levels. For the short term perspective technical aspects is not yet changed as Since 6 April 2016, USDINR continued to trade in between 66.95-66.55 levels. 

Thereby, any rise towards 66.90-67.00 is appearing to set correction for the target 66.55-66.30 in days to come unless it gives a closing above 67.30. A break above this resistance could result 67.55-67.80 upside move..






EUR jump towards 76.15


Euro traded up for fourth straight session Thursday as dollar weakened after the US central bank held interest rates unchanged.


The European Commission on Thursday said that its Economic Sentiment Indicator, which aggregates measures of consumer and business confidence--rose to 103.9 in April from 103.0 in March.



Sell strategy given on rise 75.55-75.60 was failed to test 75.25 on the downside, and after breaching the resistance 75.80 EURINR tested 75.9825 its day high.  

 On the EOD chart, short term trend has been shifted positive. Further, a break above the 76.10 could result next resistance 76.40-76.60.






Great British Pound


Pound/Rupee traded up Thursday as dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve refrained from signalling any near-term rate hike.  Pound strengthened against the greenback after Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged in its policy meeting on Wednesday and said that global economic headwinds remained on its radar.



 GBPINR remained below the high wave candle stick high, and after hitting a low of 96.9925 settled at 97.26 levels.   Intraday price action resulted in formation of inverted hammer candle stick formation which is indicating for bullish trend reversal in GBPINR. 

Near term resistance is seen at 97.80, and GBPINR would need to trade above these levels in order to test 98.00-98.50, else failure of the break will create probability for the correction from the every high of 97.35-97.50.





§  Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
All Day
JPY
Bank Holiday
-
-
-
11:00am
EUR
French Prelim GDP q/q
0.40%
0.30%
Positive
11:30am
EUR
German Retail Sales m/m
0.30%
-0.40%
Positive
12:15pm
EUR
French Consumer Spending m/m
-0.10%
0.60%
Negative

EUR
French Prelim CPI m/m
0.10%
0.70%
Negative
12:30pm
EUR
Spanish Flash GDP q/q
0.70%
0.80%
Negative
1:30pm
EUR
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
11.60%
11.70%
Negative
2:00pm
GBP
Net Lending to Individuals m/m
5.0B
4.9B
Positive

GBP
M4 Money Supply m/m
0.30%
0.90%
Negative

GBP
Mortgage Approvals
74K
74K
Neutral
2:30pm
EUR
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
-0.10%
0.00%
Negative

EUR
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
0.90%
1.00%
Negative

EUR
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
0.20%
0.20%
Neutral

EUR
Unemployment Rate
10.30%
10.30%
Neutral
5:30pm
GBP
MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
-
-
-
6:00pm
USD
Core PCE Price Index m/m
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral

USD
Employment Cost Index q/q
0.60%
0.60%
Neutral

USD
Personal Spending m/m
0.20%
0.10%
Positive

USD
Personal Income m/m
0.30%
0.20%
Positive
7:15pm
USD
Chicago PMI
53.1
53.6
Negative
7:30pm
USD
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
90.3
89.7
Positive

USD
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
-
2.70%
-

Impact: High Low Medium



More Will update soon..