Monday, 28 July 2014

Update on Lead, Zinc and Aluminium










Rally Continue in Base Metal... Hope you all are enjoying a lot







Have a look on it!!





Lead




Told to buy Lead around 133 and 135 mark. Flared like anything and hit 137.40. 

Now what to expect???

Support at 133 and Resistance at 138

Two consecutive closes above 138 will see further upside rally till 141---143.50+ mark in days to come

Traders holding long in Lead can book part profit and in panic will buy with revise stop loss below 133 on closing basis





Zinc




Mind blowing rally from 139.20---145.05. Positional holding long from 125 mark

Now what to expect???


Still looks highly positive on monthly chart and any sharp panic will be best buying opportunity

For long term and positional traders... 120.00 will be stop loss for the target of 180


Now what for Nimble traders....


Support at 143 and Resistance at 145.50

Still looks positive and could test its resistance level of 145.50. Two consecutive closes above 145.50 will see further upside rally till 148---151+ mark in days to come

Else it could test its support again

Close below 143 will see panic till 141---139 and then to 135 mark

Trade with levels only




Aluminium




Made a high of 122.80 and slipped on Friday

Now what to expect???

Support at 118 and Resistance at 122---123.50

Two consecutive closes below 118 will take to 115---113.50 mark else it could test its resistance level of 122---123.50 again

Further upside rally seen only weekly close above 123.50 mark

Trade with levels only


Weekly Update On Metal and Energy






News Roundup



Gold futures rallied 1% on Friday, as investors continued to monitor geopolitical concerns in the Gaza strip and Ukraine. Gold’s safe haven appeal was boosted on Friday as investors continued to closely watch an intensifying geopolitical crisis between Moscow and the West over the situation in Ukraine. The Pentagon said Friday that Russia has escalated the violence in Ukraine and may be set to provide more sophisticated weapons to pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, fighting between Israel and Hamas showed little sign of abating, despite ongoing efforts by the U.S. to reach a ceasefire. Gold is often seen as a haven investment in times of geopolitical uncertainty. Gold tumbled to a five-week low of $1,287.50 on Thursday after upbeat U.S. economic data added to speculation that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates sooner than expected. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending July 19 declined by 19,000 to hit an eight-year low of 284,000. On Friday, the Census Bureau said that U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.7% in June, beating expectations for a 0.5% gain. Core durable goods orders, which are stripped of transportation items, grew 0.8% in June, beating expectations for a 0.6% gain. The data primed market expectations for the Fed to wind down its bond-buying stimulus program around October and raise interest rates in 2015, which would reduce the need for gold for use as a hedge against loose monetary policy. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in gold futures. Net longs totaled 136,120 contracts, up 3.1% from net longs of 131,971 while net silver longs totaled 46,221 contracts as of last week, down slightly from net longs of 46,795 contracts in the preceding week respectively.  According to the CFTC, net copper longs totaled 44,107 contracts as of last week, down from net longs of 48,994 contracts in the preceding week.

Last week, we have seen range bound trading in Crude oil as Investors continued to closely watch an intensifying geopolitical crisis between Moscow and the West over the situation in Ukraine. The Pentagon said Friday that Russia has escalated the violence in Ukraine and may be set to provide more sophisticated weapons to pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine. Russia is one of the world's top producers and exporters of oil and gas. Market participants are worried that a flare up in the conflict could draw in neighboring countries and affect oil supplies. U.S. oil prices were weighed by weekly supply data which showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels last week, above forecasts for a gain of 1.3 million barrels. The larger than expected increase in gasoline stocks during the summer driving season in the U.S. was bearish for oil prices. Data from CFTC showed that, net longs totaled 278,116 contracts as of last week, up 6.8% from net longs of 259,259 in the preceding week.

U.S. natural gas futures ended Friday’s session close to an eight-month low, as demand for the fuel was likely to remain limited after meteorologists predicted mild summer weather in much of the U.S. Natural gas prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions after updated weather-forecasting models called for cooler temperatures across most parts of the heavily-populated Midwest and Northeast regions over the next ten days. The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 46 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.219 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 23.5%, down from a record 54.7% at the end of March. As per CFTC, net longs totaled 27,748 contracts, down 26.2% from net longs of 37,617 in the previous week.


In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s preliminary reading on U.S. second quarter growth, while Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will also be in focus. Wednesday’s Fed statement will also be closely watched for any indications that the central bank is moving closer to raising rates.




Strategy/Gold- Trade in a range with levels only as trend looks choppy



Last week, we have seen panic high volatility in Gold though traded with negative bias whole week but on late Friday, Gold spurts from lower levels and settled at 27938 and closed above 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 27795 and 27744 respectively

This week, Gold has support at 27600 and resistance at 28050---28600. Decisive break and close below 27850 will take to 27700---27600 mark. Two consecutive closes below 27600 will see further panic till 27350---27200 and then to 26900 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 28050---28200 and then to 28600 mark again. Traders can trade in a range with levels only as  trend still looks choppy and has no clear direction and will expect this volatility to remain continue for next 1-2 trading weeks.



Strategy/ Silver- Sell on rise



Clearly indicated that correction due in Silver.  Silver crashed vertically and made a low of 43738 and bounced to 44337 mark and finally settled at 44281 also it closed below 21DEMA but above 55DEMA is at 44513 and 43758 respectively.

This week, Silver has support at 43700 and resistance at 44700---45300.  Decisive break and close below 43700 will take to 43200---42600 and then to 41800 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 44700—45300 again. Silver still looks weak and on rise will sell but trade with levels only. We will expect volatility to remain continue for next 1-2 trading weeks.



Strategy/Crude oil- Sell on rise



As expected, Crude oil unable to breach the resistance level of 6270 and crashed vertically to 6086. We recommended selling below 6190 and finally settled at 6150 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 6185 and 6190 respectively.

This week, Crude oil has support at 6080 and resistance at 6190---6270. Close below 6080 will see further panic till 6030---5960 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance again level of 6190---6270 again. Close above 6270 will see further upside rally till 6330---6370 and then to 6450 mark in days to come. Will expect high volatility in Crude oil for next 1-2 trading weeks. So traders can trade safely with levels only and wait for conformation.



Strategy/Natural Gas- Be cautious at lower levels



As expected, panic continues in Natural gas in this week too and made a low of 425.50 and settled at 227.10 mark also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 238.50 and 253.90 respectively.

This week, Natural gas has support at 223---219 and resistance at 234. Close below 226 will take to 223---219 mark else it could test its resistance level of 234 again. Two consecutive closes above 234 will see further upside rally till 239---243 mark in days to come. Will expect dead cat bounce from lower levels but trade with levels only and wait for conformation.



Strategy/Copper- Trade safely with levels only


Last week, Copper traded with positive bias though traded in a range and settled 431.95 also closed above 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 429.25 and 423.90 respectively.

This week, Copper has support at 431 and resistance at 438. Fresh buying can initiate only close above 438 mark else it could test its support level of 431 and then to 427---423 again. Further panic seen only weekly close below 423 mark. Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for conformation as trend looks choppy and has no clear direction



Strategy/Nickel- Sell on rise



Last week, Nickel too trading in a range though with positive bias but unable to sustain at higher level and settled at 1148.60 also closed above 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 1146.70 and 1128.50 respectively.

This week, Nickel has support at 1130 and resistance at 1170.  Close below 1130 will take to 1110---1090 mark. Further panic seen only weekly close below 1190 level else it could test its resistance level of 1170 mark again. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 1170 will see fire in Nickel. Till then traders can trade in a range with levels only and wait for conformation as trend looks choppy and has no clear direction.





Weekly Pivot Levels




Symbol
Contract
Close
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2










GOLD
05AUG2014
27938
28236
28534
27919
27621
27304

SILVER
05SEP2014
44281
45301
46322
44515
43494
42708

CRUDEOIL
19AUG2014
6150
6274
6398
6130
6006
5862

NATURALGAS
26AUG2014
228.7
235.7
242.6
231.6
224.7
220.6

COPPER
29AUG2014
431.95
437.6
443.2
431.2
425.6
419.2

NICKEL
31JUL2014
1148.6
1170.1
1191.6
1140.3
1118.8
1089.0

LEAD
31JUL2014
135.95
138.1
140.2
134.1
132.0
128.1

ZINC
31JUL2014
144.05
147.2
150.3
142.4
139.3
134.5

ALUMINIUM
31JUL2014
119.6
122.2
124.8
120.2
117.6
115.5















































More will update soon...