Friday, 28 August 2015

Update on Bullion, Base Metal and Energy








Gold



Our sell call in Gold proven great from 26620---26280. It made a low of 26169 and bounced back sharply

Now what to expect???

Support at 26350---26150 and Resistance at 26850

Close above 26450 will take to 26700---26850. Further upside rally seen only close above 26850 mark else it could test its support level of 26350 and then to 26230---26150 again

Weekly close below 26150 will take to 26040---25920 and then to 25650 mark

Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation



Silver


Below 34300... our target was 33800---33500---33200. It made a low of 33151 and bounced back sharply

Now what to expect???


Support at 33400---33000 and Resistance at 34450

Close above 34450 will take to 34900---35300+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 33900 and then to 33400---33000 again

Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 33000 will see free fall in Silver in days to come

Today's trend looks dicey.... So trade safely with levels only




Copper


Support at 334.50 and Resistance at 348

Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 343---348. Further upside rally seen only close above 348 mark else it could test its support level of 334.50 again

Close below 334.50 will see panic again till 330---326 mark

Trade with levels only



Nickel


Support at 645---620 and Resistance at 680

Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation... Anything seems will update via SMS



Crude oil


Yesterday... We recommended buying in Crude oil around 2660. It flared like anything and hit 2888 mark. We booked full profit around 2790 level


Now what to expect???

Support at 2770---2690 and Resistance at 2920---2980

Still looks positive and could test its resistance level of 2920 and then to 2950---2980 mark. Further upside rally seen only close above 3030 mark else it could test its support level of 2770 and then to 2720---2690 mark again

Close below 2690 will see further panic till 2630---2570 mark

$38 INR 2570 act as major support for Crude oil



























More will update soon...

Currency Outlook - USDINR is appear to test immediate support 66.22 and below











Dollar index rose by 0.47% on better than expected economic data from the US amid uncertainty about Fed rate action due to the dovish comments by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President.

 


Dollar/rupee in the non-deliverable forwards market maturing in one month, traded at Rs 66.39/$1 compared to previous close of Rs 66.43/$1 and onshore spot previous close of Rs 66.04/$1.

 
Wall Street rose sharply overnight thanks to revised U.S. gross domestic product data showing the economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter - a reassuring sign amid worries over deepening economic woes in China.

 
US GDP growth for Q2 was 3.7% compared with an expectation of 3.2% and Q1 growth of 2.3%. Initial jobless claims for the week also fell to 2, 71,000 compared to 2,77,000 for the previous week




Image result for dOLLAR/rUPEE

After hitting a high of 66.52 USDINR settled up by 0.32% at 66.40 levels. 

Today USDINR may show indecisive move following to doji candle stick formation on EOD chart. 

Immediate support will intact at 66.18 and temporary correction is expected to come below this level else possible upward move towards 66.50 and above is expect to take place from 66.22-66.20 levels..






Image result for Euro




The euro was down more than 1% against the dollar on Wednesday after a senior European Central Bank policymaker warned that the risks to its short-term inflation target have increased and hinted at fresh easing to combat deflation.



Today, correction will expect to come below 74.60 levels cmp 74.8750 else wait for rise towards 75.20-75.30 with stop loss 75.40.




Image result for gbp


GBPINR witnessed 0.81% fall and settled at 102.45. A long black candle stick formation on EOD chart is indicating for bearishness in days to come.

Intraday correction is expect to come around 102.55-102.60 levels with stop loss 102.70 Target 102.20-102.00 and below.

Further – U.K. Second Estimate GDP q/q at 2 pm will have strong impact on the GBP.





Sell strategy given below 55.40 was successful with JPYINR drop towards 54.9075 levels. First target was at 54.75 levels. 


  Intraday price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating for volatile move in days to come.
Near term support is seen at 54.90 and short term correction is expected to come below this level only for the target 54.75-54.50 and below. Stop loss 55.10.






Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
All Day
EUR
German Prelim CPI m/m
-0.10%
0.20%
Negative
12:30pm
EUR
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
-0.10%
0.10%
Negative
2:00pm
GBP
Second Estimate GDP q/q
0.70%
0.70%
Neutral

GBP
Prelim Business Investment q/q
1.60%
2.00%
Negative

GBP
Index of Services 3m/3m
0.70%
0.40%
Positive
Tentative
EUR
Italian 10-y Bond Auction

1.83|1.4
-
6:00pm
USD
Goods Trade Balance

-62.3B
-

USD
Core PCE Price Index m/m
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral

USD
Personal Spending m/m
0.40%
0.20%
Positive

USD
Personal Income m/m
0.40%
0.40%
Neutral
7:30pm
USD
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
93.20
92.90
Positive

USD
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
-
2.80%
-
Day 2
ALL
Jackson Hole Symposium
-
-
-

                                         
 







More will Update soon.. 





Happy Raksha Bandhan































Thursday, 27 August 2015

Daily Currency view - Dollar index rebounded more than 1.40% while Euro gave up 1.77% its gain as was expected in yesterday update.










Dollar/Rupee 


Dollar/rupee fell to 66.1175 from the day high 66.45 on selling by exporters after China central 

bank Wednesday injected 140 billion Yuan into the interbank money market via short-term 

liquidity operation.  


 However USDINR remained above the support of 65.90 and settled at 66.19 levels.


Today, USDINR may show volatile move ahead of August Future expiry and U.S. GDP and 

weekly Unemployment Claims data.

Immediate support will remain 65.90 and correction is expected to come below this level 

towards 65.55 else possible upward moves towards 66.50 and above is expect to take place from 66.10-66.20 levels.




Dollar index rebounded more than 1.40% while Euro gave up 1.77% its gain as was expected in yesterday update.


Dollar index rose on better than expected economic data from the US, however the upside was 

capped on dovish comments by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President.

The People's Bank of China Tuesday infused 140 billion Yuan through a short-term liquidity operation.

PBoC Tuesday cut one year lending rate was cut by 25 basis points to 4.6% effective 

Wednesday, while the one year deposit rate was cut by another 25 basis points to 1.75%.


The PBOC also lowered the reserve requirement for rural banks, which governs how much banks 

can lend to the economy, by 50 bps effective from Sep 6.

Asian markets opened down up as immediate Fed rate hike fears waned along with China's 

measures to curb market volatility after the Yuan devaluation.



Euro down more than 1.70% after ECB hints at fresh stimulus


Bank policymaker warned that the risks to its short-term inflation target have increased and 

hinted at fresh easing to combat deflation.

EUR/USD was down 1.77% to 1.1315 extended its pull down from the eight-month highs of 

1.1713 hit on Monday.

EURINR was down 0.52% from the day high 76.8350 and settled at 75.2875.



The single currency moved lower after ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said lower 

commodity prices and signs of economic weakness mean there is an increased risk that the euro 

area will miss its inflation targets.


He also indicated that the ECB is prepared to scale up its asset purchase program, known as 

quantitative easing, if necessary.


Today, any rise towards 75.70-75.60 in September future could attract intraday sell with stop loss 75.85. Target will be 75.10-74.80.



GBPINR gave up nearly 1%


Pound drifted lower towards 103.28 levels and settled at 103.39 down by 0.17% on Wednesday 

as investors preferred to remain on the sideline due to lack of any fresh triggers even as they 

await the release of United Kingdom's GDP data.


Technical Review:


After breaching the support 103.80 GBPINR took steep fall towards 103.1525 and settled at 

103.17 down by 0.96%. A long black candle stick formation on EOD chart is indicating for 

bearishness in days to com

Today, correction will expect to come on rise around 102.80-103.00 levels with stop loss 103.20 Target will be 102.50-102.25.



Japanese Yen



Yen settled at 55.32 up by 0.55% on Wednesday as safe-haven bids for the Yen declined 

following the rate cut in China and smart rebound in Chinese stocks early yesterday.

Technical Review




After hitting a high of 55.6750, JPYINR consolidated around 55.40 levels and settled up by 

0.70%. Intraday price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating 

for volatile move in days to come. Near term support is seen at 55.15 and short term correction is 

expected to come below this level only.









Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
11:30am
GBP
German Import Prices m/m
-0.30%
-0.50%
Negative


Nationwide HPI m/m
0.40%
0.40%
Neutral
1:30pm
EUR
M3 Money Supply y/y
4.90%
5.00%
Negative

EUR
Private Loans y/y
0.70%
0.60%
Positive
6:00pm
USD
Prelim GDP q/q
3.20%
2.30%
Positive

USD
Unemployment Claims
275K
277K
Positive

USD
Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
2.00%
2.00%
Neutral
7:30pm
USD
Pending Home Sales m/m
1.30%
-1.80%
Positive
Day 1
ALL
Jackson Hole Symposium




                                         
Impact: High Low Medium









More will Update soon...