Saturday, 28 February 2015

Key Highlights of Budget:









Image result for budget highlights



Govt proposes to reduce corporate tax rate to 25% from 30%

  FM says exemptions for individual tax players to continue

GST to be implemented from next year

FM proposes to rationalise capital gains regime for REITs/InvITs

Govt defer General Anti Avoidance Rule by 2 years

Income tax on royalty fees for technical reduced to 10%

  Govt to reduce customs duty on 22 items

Govt abolishes wealth tax and additional surcharge of 2% on income over Rs 1 cr

Govt to increase excise duty to 12.5%

  Govt proposes to exempt special additional duty on all items

Govt reduces excise duty on leather footwear to 6%

  Govt to have 100% tax deduction for Swachh Bharat and Clean Ganga

Health insurance premium limit for senior citizens to be Rs 30,000

Govt to increase limit of deduction of health insurance premium to Rs 25,000

Service tax exemption extended to pre-cold storage warehousing

Individual tax payer will see tax benefit up to income of Rs 4.44 lakh

Transport allowance exemption increased to Rs 1,600/month

Govt to allow exemption of Rs 1.5 lakh under new pension scheme

Govt allows additional deduction of Rs 50,000 for contribution to NPS
Govt proposes to gain Rs 15,000 cr from overall tax tweaking

Govt increases Service tax from 12.36% to 14%

Govt aims to receive Rs 41,000 crore from PSU divestments in FY16

Govt says divestment proceeds to be Rs 26,353 crre in FY15

Service tax exemption withdrawn on MF agents to AMC

Petroleum subsidy to be Rs 30,000 cr in FY16

  Fuel subsidy at Rs 60,270 crore in FY15

  Customs duty on commercial vehicles increased to 40% from 10%
 
Total divestment target for FY16 is at Rs 69,500 cr

Govt aims to borrow Rs 4.56 lakh crore on net basis in FY16


































More will update soon...

Levels update.... Have a close watch on Union Budget







As expected, we have seen sluggish move in bullion and base metal in yesterday’s trading session. Today will have a close watch on Union Budget. There are rumors that finance minister may cut import duty on Gold by 2%. If this happen then will expect sharp downside move in bullion specially in Gold and if no major decision take place in this union budget then will expect range bound trading for the day. Also news that govt. may take some positive action against CTT which helps to support commodity markets. So will have to watch budget and impact on commodities during market session....
 
India's demand for gold was muted this week as buyers in the world's top consumer of the metal held off purchases ahead of an expected cut in import duty and a likely drop in local prices but dealers hope to step up purchases, if the import duty is lowered from a record 10% in Saturday's federal budget, to meet demand from the upcoming wedding season and Akshay Tritiya, a major festival associated with gold-buying in April. Gold prices in India were either on par with or at a discount of $1 an ounce to the international market this week due to slow demand and adequate supplies. Imports have been low in the past months because of uncertainty over the duty but now everyone will buy to cater to the jeweler demand.  However, in the second-biggest consumer China, gold buying remained robust. Premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange were at $4-$6 an ounce over the global spot price this week as Chinese buyers returned to the market following the Feb. 18-24 Lunar New Year holiday. Premiums were at $3-$4 before the holiday. Chinese demand usually weakens after the holiday, but purchases this time have been steady with benchmark spot prices hovering near $1,200 an ounce, a key level for consumers.The dollar weakened Friday after the release of mixed U.S. economic data. Gross domestic product for the final quarter of 2014 rose at a 2.2% rate, down from an initial estimate of 2.6%, the Commerce Department said. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew at rate of 5%. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Business Barometer, also known as Chicago PMI, fell further than expected -- dropping to a five and a half year low of 45.8. The reading fell from 59.4 in January, following significant drops in production and order backlogs. In addition, frigid temperatures nationwide caused the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index to drop for the month of February following an 11-year high the previous month. At the same time, there was positive news in the housing sector as pending home sales in the United States increased to its highest level in a year and half. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index increased 1.7% for January, marking the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Gold and silver settled on MCX division at 26227 and 36393 


 Image result for union budget 2015


Today.. Gold has support at 25900 and Resistance at 26400---26550 while Silver has support at 35700 and Resistance at 36900---37400

Crude oil has support at 3030---2970 and Resistance at 3130


Soybean has support at 3360---3330 and Resistance at 3430---3470

Soy ref has  support at 590 and Resistance at 600---608

Rmseed has support at 3320---3250 and Resistance at 3450---3530

Chana has support at 3620---3550 and Resistance at 3750

Traders can trade safely with levels only and wait for conformation... Anything seems will update during market hours






































More will update soon...

Thought for the day



 








 






















 

Friday, 27 February 2015

Update on Bullion, Base metal and Energy









Gold



Support at 26050 and Resistance at 26400---26550

Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 26050 will see free fall in Gold till 25600----25300 and then to 24800 mark else it could test its resistance level of 26400---26550 again

Further upside rally seen only weekly close above 26550 mark

Trade with levels only




Silver



Support at 35700 and Resistance at 36900---37400

Below 36300... it could test 36000---35700. Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 35700 will see free fall in Silver till ???

Else it could test its resistance again

Upperside seems limited in Gold and Silver and any sharp rise will be selling opportunity but trade with levels only



Crude oil


Below 3130... our target was 3070---3030. Just made a low of 3042

Now what to expect???

Two consecutive closes below 3030 will see further panic till 2970---2930 and then to 2850 mark

Hurdle intact at 3130---3180

Trade with levels only.. Anything seems will update during market hours


Natural gas


Below 176... our target was 172---168. Just made a low of 168.20. Below 168... will see further panic till 165---162---160 mark

160 act as major support while hurdle intact at 190

Trade with levels only





Today... there is expiry in base metal and will expect high volatility. So trade safely with levels only. Anything seems will update via SMS































More will update soon...

Daily Currency View - Consolidation above 62.08 could expect in USDINR ahead of Union Budget



USDINR March Future

USDINR extended its previous day bearish trend and settled with the loss of 0.42% at 62.11 levels. In near term 62.08  levels will act as an immediate support and only sustaining below it would confirm for negative move till 61.80 levels and thereafter for 61.50 levels in days to come, else the pair may consolidate around 62.30-62.50 ahead of Union Budget.

Recommendation/View :

Below 62.08 will expect to test 61.80-61.50 with stop loss 62.30.


EURINR March Future

EURINR remained negative as was expected yesterday and after triggering stop loss 70.90 made a low 70.49 the first downside was 70.40 in our previous day report. 

Today, EURINR witnessed 1.16% negative opening at 69.7975 against previous close of 70.5150 and we expect that weakness will continue and downside target could expect towards 69.50-69.35 in days to come.

Recommendation:

Sell EURINR 69.75-69.80 Target 69.50-69.30 stop loss 70.00. 


GBPINR March Future

The two inverted hammer with similar top was resulted decent fall from 96.90 to towards 96.2450 levels in GBPINR as was expected yesterday. 

Intraday sell call given around 96.86-96.88 with stop loss 96.92 was rocked with GBPINR drop towards 95.8275 recent low.  

Now next support is seen at 95.80 levels below it 95.50-95.20-95.00 levels is expected in days to come.  

Recommendation 

Sell GBPINR March below 95.80 with stop loss 95.95


JPYINR March Future

 JPYINR settled down by 0.20% at 5.2675 levels yesterday. Sell strategy given at 52.55 was not initiated as JPYINR continued to trade below 52.50 levels. 

 A long bearish candle stick formation on EOD chart is yet indicating for correction towards 51.80-51.60 in days to come.  

Now pair trading at 52.13 levels and its expected that any jump towards 52.30-52.35 levels could attract huge selling pressure for the downside target of 51.90-51.70 levels with stop loss of 52.52.




Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
10:30am
JPY
Housing Starts y/y
-11.10%
-14.70%
Neutral
12:30pm
EUR
German Import Prices m/m
-0.80%
-1.70%
Neutral
All Day
EUR
German Prelim CPI m/m
0.60%
-1.10%
Positive
1:15pm
EUR
French Consumer Spending m/m
-0.30%
1.50%
Negative
1:30pm
EUR
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
-1.50%
-1.30%
Negative
3:30pm
EUR
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
0.20%
-0.40%
Positive
7:00pm
USD
Prelim GDP q/q
2.10%
2.60%
Negative

USD
Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
0.00%
0.00%
Neutral
8:15pm
USD
Chicago PMI
58.40
59.40
Negative
8:30pm
USD
Pending Home Sales m/m
2.50%
-3.70%
Positive

USD
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
94.20
98.10
Negative

USD
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
-
2.50%
-
8:45pm
USD
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
-
-
-
                                                   
Impact: High Low Medium
 









More will update soon...