Thursday, 30 June 2016

Currency Outlook - U.K. GDP and U.S. Unemployment Claims





Dollar/Rupee July Future

Dollar/rupee posts its biggest single day fall in over three weeks Wednesday on likely overseas funds inflow into local stock while the dollar index was little changed Thursday on improved risk appetite as investors recover from surprised exit of United Kingdom from the European Union in a referendum last week


Technical, USDINR retraced more than 0.40% yesterday and settled at 67.9950 compare to previous close of 68.2875.  On the EOD chart a formation of long bearish candle stick is indicating for bearishness in the pair, however correction is expect to limited towards 67.80-67.65 levels which is coincided with 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 29 Feb-20 April fall from 69.5650 to 67.00.


 On the upside,  61.8% retracement level at 68.46 will act as an near term resistance level above which pair will expect to test 68.95 and above, else any rise towards 68.25-68.30 is expect to attract short term selling activities.


Short term strategy - Sell USDINR  around 68.20-68.25 Target  68.00-67.80. Stop loss above 68.40.




EUR/INR July Future

Euro traded down Wednesday data showed that Eurozone's economic sentiment eased in the month of June.

Eurozone economic sentiment eased slightly in June, survey results from European Commission revealed Wednesday.

The economic confidence index came in at 104.4 in June, down from 104.6 in May. The expected score was 104.7.

The consumer sentiment index fell to -7.3 in June, as initially estimated, from -7 in May. Likewise, the services sentiment index slid to 10.8 from 11.3 in May.

Another report from EU showed that the business sentiment dropped marginally to 0.22 from 0.26 in May. Economists had forecast the score to remain unchanged at 0.26.


EURINR turn lower yesterday and after breaching the support 75.25 settled at 75.40 levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick pattern which is indicating for indecisive trend in days to come.  


 Near term resistance is seen at 75.80 and possible correction is expected to come on rise around 75.65-75.70 unless it gives a closing above this resistance






GBP/INR July Future


Pound traded up for the second-day Wednesday as globally risk aversion subsided as Brexit concerns faded even as jittery remains after the Prime Minister of United Kingdom, David Cameron resigned.

GBPINR rebounded from the day low 90.7850, and settled with a gain of 0.32% at 91.5250 levels. A formation of bullish harami cross pattern on EOD chart is yet indicating for short term pullback in GBPINR.   

Crucial support will intact at 90.75 and fresh correction is expected to come below 90.75 for the target 90.20-89.80.




JPY/INR July Future

Yen traded down Wednesday on optimism that policy makers will introduce measures to limit the economic fallout from Britain's decision to leave the European Union. Yen also drop as top policymakers in Japan prepared for another set of meetings on the economy in the wake of Brexit vote in the UK.


JPYINR extended its fall for Wednesday also and settled down by 0.69% at 66.25 levels.  Near term trend is expect to remain bullish following to the strong breakout of short term consolidation and any dip towards 66.20-66.00 is expect to attract near term buying activities, unless pair give a closing below 65.80 levels.

 Below 65.80 will expect to test 65.50-65.25 and below. Stop loss will be 66.00.








§  Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
10:30am
JPY
Housing Starts y/y
4.90%
9.00%
Negative
11:30am
EUR
German Retail Sales m/m
0.70%
-0.90%
Positive
12:15pm
EUR
French Consumer Spending m/m
-0.10%
-0.10%
Neutral

EUR
French Prelim CPI m/m
0.20%
0.40%
Negative
1:25pm
EUR
German Unemployment Change
-5K
-11K
Positive
2:00pm
GBP
Current Account
-27.3B
-32.7B
Positive

GBP
Final GDP q/q
0.40%
0.40%
Neutral

GBP
Index of Services 3m/3m
0.40%
0.60%
Negative

GBP
Revised Business Investment q/q
-0.40%
-0.50%
Neutral
2:30pm
EUR
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
0.00%
-0.10%
Neutral

EUR
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
0.80%
0.80%
Neutral

EUR
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
0.20%
0.30%
Negative
Tentative
EUR
Italian 10-y Bond Auction
-
1.42|1.4
-
5:00pm
EUR
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
-
-
-
6:00pm
USD
Unemployment Claims
267K
259K
Negative
7:15pm
USD
Chicago PMI
50.60
49.30
Positive
11:00pm
USD
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
-
-
-

Impact: High Low Medium





 More will Update soon..