Wednesday, 22 October 2014

Update on Gold, Silver, Copper, Lead, Zinc and Aluminium












Gold



Support at 27400 and Resistance at 27650

Above 27650 will see further upside rally till 27800---27900+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 27400 again

Close below 27400 will see further panic till 27200---27050 and then to 26900 mark

Traders can trade with levels only and wait for conformation



Silver



Still trading in a range of 38300---39200. Just trade in a range with levels only and wait for conformation

Support at 38300---37700 and Resistance at 39200

Two consecutive closes above 39200 will take to 39900---40500+ mark in days to come else panic remain continue


Copper



Support at 409 and Resistance at 413

Decisive break and sustain + close above 413 will take to 417---420---423 mark else it could test its support level of 409 and then to 406---404 again

Further panic seen only close below 409 mark

Trade with levels only



Lead


Support at 121 and Resistance at 125

Two consecutive closes above 125 will take to 128---130.50+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 122---121 again

Further panic seen only weekly close below 121 mark

Trade with levels only



Aluminium



Support at 120.50 and Resistance at 123

Two consecutive closes above 123 will take to 125.50---127+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 120.50 again

Two consecutive closes below 120.50 will see further panic till 118---116 mark

Trade with levels only


Zinc


Support at 135.50 and Resistance at 138

Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 135.50 will take to 130---127 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance again

Close above 138 will see further upside rally till 139---140.50 and then to 142 mark

Trade with levels only



























More will update soon...

Daily Currency Outlook




USDINR

USDINR traded within previous day range of 61.40-61.28 levels

 and settled at 61.34 levels, almost flat. 

Today, USDINR is expected to test 61.10 and below levels on downside following to a Harami Cross candle stick formation on EOD chart. 

Near term resistance is at 61.52 levels and a break above it could 

result in positive move towards 61.80-62.00 levels.

EURINR

Sell strategy given from 78.68 levels is rocking with EURINR drop 

towards 77.23 levels, and weakness will remain

 continue in EURINR following to the negative trend in EURUSD

 and long bearish candle stick formation on EOD 

chart. Hence, traders may sell Oct future around 78.00-77.98 levels with stop loss of 78.25 levels and target of 77.60-77.40 levels.

GBPINR

GBPINR settled down by 0.19% at 99.10 levels. A doji candle stick

formation on EOD chart is indicating for indecision

 among GBPINR trader. Near term resistance is seen at 99.35

 levels and a break above it will expect GBPINR to test 

99.50-99.80 levels else short term correction could take place for 

downside target 98.30-98.00

 Traders may sell below 98.60 levels with strict stop loss of 98.85

 levels for target 98.30-98.00.

JPYINR

JPYINR settled down by 0.17% at 57.42 levels. A Hammer candle

 stick formation on EOD chart is indicating for short 

term positive consolidation around 57.60 levels (cmp 57.43). 

Furthermore, a breakdown of near term support of 57.35 levels

 only could bring bearish move towards 57.00-56.80 levels.

Traders may sell below 57.35 levels with stop loss of 57.50 levels.









More will Update soon.. 







Happy Diwali to You All












Tuesday, 21 October 2014

Update on Bullion, Base Metal and Energy








Hope you all enjoyed levels in Bullion... Base Metal and Energy. Just trade with levels only. Any reversal seems will update via SMS






Have a look on it!!






Gold




Yesterday we recommended buying in Gold around 27300. Just made a high of 27570

Now what to expect???

Still looks positive and could test 27650 mark. Decisive break and sustain above 27650 will see further upside rally till 27800---27900+ mark

Traders holding long in Gold can book part profit and revise stop loss of 27380 on closing basis




Silver



Still trading in a range and has no clear direction..... Silver has support at 38300---37700 and Resistance at 39200

Break and sustain above 39200 with volume will take to 39900---40500+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 38300 and then to 38000---37700 again

Further panic seen only weekly close below 37700 mark

Trade with levels only



Aluminium



Sent message to buy Aluminium around 118 with stop loss of 116. Flared to hit 121.75 and now trading around 120.50

Still looks positive and could test 122---123 mark. Close above 123 will see further upside rally till 124.50---126.00+ mark in days to come

Book part profit ans revise stop loss of 119.00 on closing basis




Nickel


Stop loss triggered in buy call of Nickel. Again recommended selling in Nickel below 950 with stop loss of 965 for the initial target of 935---925---910. Just made a low of 931.20

Now what to expect???

Still looks weak and could test 925. Close below 925 will see further panic till 910 mark

Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 910 will see free fall in Nickel till 880---865 mark in days to come

Revise stop loss of 950 on closing basis



Natural Gas



Crashed vertically and made a low of 225. We recommended selling below 233 and 228 mark

Now what to expect???

Below 224 will see further panic till 221---219 mark in days to come

Traders holding short as per our level can book part profit and revise stop loss above 228 on closing basis

Others can trade with levels only



Crude oil



Support at 4970----4930 and Resistance at 5130

Above 5080 will take to 5110---5130. Further upside rally seen only close above 5130 mark else it could test its support again

$78 act as major support and unlikely to breach its support. In panic will buy with stop loss of $78

Any reversal seems will update via SMS






































More will update soon...

Daily Currency Outlook - USD/INR opened flat on mo-end demand, favourable China data




USDINR
USDINR saw 14 paisa correction as was expected on Monday and settled with a loss of 0.23% at 61.46 levels. A break below the immediate support of 61.55 levels on EOD chart is indicating for bearishness in USDINR towards 61.10 levels which coincides with near term support line. Near term resistance is seen at 61.59 levels and then at 61.75 levels. 

Risky traders may take intraday short position below 61.27 target 61.10 stop loss 61.38.

EURINR
After witnessing a gap down opening of about 52 paisa, EURINR saw a consolidation above 61.30 levels, and settled with a loss of 0.50%. On EOD chart a high wave candle stick formation is indicating for continuation of negative to volatile move.

Hence, risky traders may take short position around 78.68-78.65 for target of 78.30-78.08 and stop loss of 78.85 levels.


GBPINR
Near term resistance is seen at 99.15 levels and a break above it will expect GBPINR to test 99.47-99.80 levels else short term correction could take place for downside target of 98.65 levels (CMP -  99.12 levels).

Risky traders buy above 99.15 levels with stop loss of 99.00 levels.

JPYINR
Sell strategy given below 57.60 levels was not initiated as JPYINR gave a big gap down opening at 57.30 levels against 57.77 levels of Friday's close. During the day JPYINR saw a small pullback towards 57.5675 levels and settled at 57.50 levels.

 The intra-day price action resulted in the formation of a hammer candle stick which is indicating for further pullback towards 58.00-58.25 levels in JPYINR.
Traders may buy above 57.70 levels with stop loss of 57.55 levels.









More will Update soon.. 

Thought for the day

.....








Monday, 20 October 2014

Weekly Update on Bullion, Energy and Base Metal














News Roundup



Gold futures ended Friday's session modestly lower as market sentiment stabilized, although prices still posted a weekly gain as concerns over the global economic outlook boosted safe-haven demand. U.S. and European stock markets rallied on Friday, following steep losses and massive intraday swings over the past five days, sparked by concerns about global economic weakness and fears over the spread of Ebola. Meanwhile, investors continued to speculate over the timing of a rate hike in the U.S. after a report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 86.4 in October, the most since July 2007. Another report showed that housing starts rose more than expected last month, bolstering the outlook for the sector. Gold prices rallied to a five-week high on Wednesday amid speculation weaker than expected global economic growth and its effect on the U.S. economy may lead the Federal Reserve to push back interest-rate increases. A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as bullish for gold, as it decreases the relative cost of holding on to the metal, which doesn't offer investors any similar guaranteed payout.  The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 0.7% at 85.31.  Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies. Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers increased their bullish bets in gold futures in the week ending October 14. Net longs totaled 51,994 contracts, up 28.3% from net longs of 37,275 while net silver shorts totaled 9,089 contracts as of last week, compared to net shorts of 7,071 contracts in the preceding week.

Crude oil futures ended Friday's session modestly higher, as investors returned to the market to seek cheap valuations in wake of recent losses and to close out bets on lower prices. Crude oil futures sank to multi-month lows on Thursday as concerns over the global economic outlook and the impact on future demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity. Indications that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will not cut output to support oil markets have weighed on prices. Kuwait lowered official selling prices to Asian buyers in an effort to retain its market share last week, following similar moves from core OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Oil ministers from the 12-member group are scheduled to meet in Vienna on November 27 to consider whether to adjust their production target of 30 million barrels per day for early 2015. Global supplies have far outpaced demand in recent months. A report earlier in the month showed that OPEC oil output hit a two-year high of 31 million barrels per day in September, led by higher production from Iraq and Libya. Some market analysts believe that only a cut in output by the oil cartel will halt the decline in prices. Oil traders are looking ahead to a raft of Chinese economic data later this week, including reports on third quarter gross domestic product, as well as data on industrial production and retail sales. The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consuming nations. According to CFTC, Net longs totaled 176,671 contracts as of last week, down 8.1% from net longs of 192,208 in the preceding week.

U.S. natural gas futures slumped to an 11-month low on Friday, as investors bet that mild weather will dampen early-winter demand for the heating fuel.  Investors continued to digest Thursday's weekly inventory data, which showed that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by a more than expected 94 billion cubic feet last week. Inventories rose by 79 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change is a build of 78 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.299 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 9.9% from a record 54.7% at the end of March. The Energy Information Administration's next storage report is slated for release on Thursday, October 23, with analysts expecting a build in the range of 95 to 98 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 17. Net longs totaled 2,653 contracts as of last week, down from net longs of 6,288 in the previous week. In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting U.S. data on consumer price inflation and new home sales for fresh signals on the strength of the economic recovery.



Gold


Last week, we have seen high volatility in Gold though traded with positive bias. Gold rallied as festive demand arise in India and this trend remain continue in this week too. Above 27050 our target was 27200---27400---27550. It made a high of 27550 and finally settled at 27256 also closed above 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 27078 and 27240 respectively.

This week, Gold has support at 27050---26900 and resistance at 27650. Still looks positive and could test its resistance level of 27650 mark. Two consecutive closes above 27650 will see further upside rally till 27900---28200+ level in days to come. Fresh selling can initiate only weekly close below 26900 mark. Traders can buy Gold in panic around 27150---27050 with strict stop loss of 27050 on closing basis for the initial target of 27650.



Silver


Last week, we have seen range bound trading in Silver too though traded with negative bias and settled at 38399 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA is at 39125 and 40625 respectively.

This week, Silver has support at 37700---37200 and resistance at 39200. In silver will expect range bound trading in this week again. Either side break or close with volume on weekly basis will decide further. Close below 38200 will take to 37700---37200 mark. Weekly close below 37200 will see further panic till 36000---35000 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 39200 and then to 39600---40000 again. Overall trend still looks weak in Silver and any sharp rise will be selling opportunity but trade with levels only


Crude oil


As expected, Crude oil crashed vertically and made a low of 4944. We recommended selling below 5520 and 5130 level and settled at 5095 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 5404 and 5639 respectively.

This week, Crude oil has support at 5000---4930 and resistance at 5250. Crude oil already crashed more than 900 points in just three weeks and will expect dead cat bounce from lower levels. On Nymex division, Crude oil has major support at $78 and unlikely to breach its support. Two consecutive closes above 5250 will see further upside rally till 5400---5500+ mark in days to come. Traders can buy and accumulate Crude oil in panic around 5000 with stop loss of $78 INR 4930 for the initial target of 5250.


Natural Gas


Last week, we have seen high volatility in Natural Gas too though traded with negative bias. It made a low of 228.30 settled at 230.90 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 239.90 and 241.20 respectively.

This week, Natural gas has support at 228 and resistance at 234. Two consecutive closes below 228 will take to 225---222 and then to 219 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 234 again. Two consecutive closes above 234 will see further upside rally till 239---244+ mark. Overall trend looks choppy in Natural gas and has no clear direction. So traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for conformation. 


Copper


Choppy session continues though traded with negative bias. We recommended selling in Copper around 417—419 with stop loss above 423 on closing basis. It made a high of 423.35 but unable to close and crashed vertically to 404.50 and finally settled 409.25 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 415 and 429.15 respectively.

This week, Copper has support at 404 and resistance at 415. Still looks weak and could test its support. Two consecutive closes below 404 will see further panic till 400---397 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance again. Further upside rally seen only close above 415. Close above 415 will see further upside rally till 419---423 mark. Traders holding short as per our level can book part profit and revise stop loss above 415 on closing basis. Others can trade with levels only.


Nickel


Last week, Nickel crashed and made a low of 949.50. We recommended selling below 1030 level and settled at 960.80 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 1022.90 and 1071 respectively.

This week, Nickel has support at 950 and resistance at 985. Two consecutive closes below 950 will take to 925---910 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance again. Fresh buying can initial only weekly close above 985 mark. Traders holding short as per our level can book part profit and revise stop loss above 985 on closing basis. Others can trade with levels only.


Pivot Levels


Symbol
Contract
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2







GOLD
03OCT2014
27597
27938.7
27268
26927.3
26598.7
SILVER
05DEC2014
38959
39520
38619
38059
37720
CRUDEOIL
19OCT2014
5267
5439
5105
4933
4771
NATURALGAS
25SEP2014
240
249
234.3
225
219
COPPER
28NOV2014
420
431.20
412.4
401.40
393.50
NICKEL
30SEP2014
1001
1043
975.7
934.60
908.40
LEAD
30SEP2014
127.50
130.90
124.4
121.05
117.90
ZINC
30SEP2014
143
147.90
139.4
134.40
130.90
ALUMINIUM
30SEP2014
122.05
123.90
119.2
117.30
114.50