Monday, 16 January 2017

Currency Outlook for weekending 19 January 2016



USD-INR FUTURE

USDINR continued its neutral to bearish trend for third consecutive week as weakness in the dollar against major currencies which drop towards its 14 Dec 2016 low added selling pressure in the pair.

 On Wednesday US President-elect Donald Trump failed to present a clear picture on stimulus this saw weakness in dollar index, however downside move were limited amid dollar buying by nationalized banks on post upbeat US economic data.

 Technical, sell strategy given around 68.35-68.40 was initiated, but pair rebounded from the weekly low 68.0625. On the weekly chart formation of doji candle stick with almost similar top is yet indicating for relatively neutral to bearish trend. 

On the Upside, 68.65 will act as a strong resistance and pair would need to break it in order to test 68.85-69.20.

Dollar Index
The greenback continued its correction for third consecutive week and drop nearly 1%. It tested 100.70 lowest levels since 14 December 2016 after US President-elect Donald Trump failed to present a clear picture on stimulus. Trump in his first "General News Conference" after election have only renewed uncertainty about his policy decision without giving any direction regarding the plans for tax reform and infrastructure spending and US economic stance.

Technically, the third long black candle stick is formation of three black crow’s pattern (bearish) and dollar index may test its support 99.80. On the upside, massive resistance for the week is seen at 101.80 above will expect to test 102.32-102.55.

EUR-INR FUTURE

EURINR continued its recovery rally for third consecutive week and after breaching resistance of 72.30 tested 72.81. Sharp fall in the greenback amid optimism over President Donald Trump's proposals post his first news conference since US election supported in short covering.

 Technical, a strong bounce back from the weekending 18 December and formation of bullish three white soldiers candle stick pattern, but pair would need to break 72.85 which is coincide with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement  levels and a breakout of 72.85 only could open the door for 73.20-73.45 levels.  Else, failure of the breakout could bring correction from every rise 72.70-72.65 for the target 72.20-71.70


GBP-INR FUTURE

GBPINR witnessed more than 1% fall on concern about how the United Kingdom economy may be impacted due to its departure from the European Union.  UK Prime Minister Theresa May said Britain would make a definitive break with the EU while still seeking to negotiate the best possible access to the bloc's common market which added weakness in the pound.

Technically, as per the sell strategy given around 84.70 was not initiated as pair remained below 84.20 levels.  On the weekly chart, GBPINR yet settled below its short term moving average which is yet creating probability for bearishness in GBPINR.  On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 85.10 pair would need to trade above it in order to test 85.60-86.00

JPY-INR FUTURE


Yen sparked more than 1.5% last week, tracking weak dollar after US President-elect Donald Trump avoided fresh attacks on global trade in his first news conference in months. However, it retreated from the high 60.30 as dollar index strengthened against its major peers post better than expected US economic data.

On the weekly chart, a closing above 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels is indicating for strong support for JPYINR and pair may test 60.50-61.00 levels very soon.

On the downside, crucial support is seen at 58.80 and below will expect to test 58.20-57.65




High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week





Date
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Impact
17.01.17
 12:00am
GBP
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
-
-
-

3:00pm
GBP
CPI y/y
1.40%
1.20%
Positive

Tentative
GBP
Prime Minister May Speaks
-
-
-
18.01.17
3:00pm
GBP
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
2.60%
2.50%
Positive


GBP
Claimant Count Change
4.6K
2.4K
Positive

7:00pm
USD
CPI m/m
0.30%
0.20%
Positive


USD
Core CPI m/m
0.20%
0.20%
Neutral
19.01.17
1:30am
USD
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
-
-
-

6:15pm
EUR
Minimum Bid Rate
0.00%
0.00%
Neutral

7:00pm
EUR
ECB Press Conference
-
-
-


USD
Building Permits
1.22M
1.20M
Positive


USD
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
16.3
21.5
Negative


USD
Unemployment Claims
252K
247K
Negative
20.01.17
6:30am
USD
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
-
-
-

7:30am
CNY
GDP q/y
6.70%
6.70%
Neutral


CNY
Industrial Production y/y
6.10%
6.20%
Negative

3:00pm
GBP
Retail Sales m/m
-0.10%
0.20%
Negative
  


More will Update soon..