Friday, 31 October 2014

Currency Outlook - Europe CPI Flash Estimate and India Fiscal deficit for Apr- Sep will be key factors for FX market today..






USDINR

Yesterday carry forwarded sell call hit first target of 61.65, initiated at 61.81. Near term resistance is seen at 61.95 levels and a break above it will expect USDINR to test 62.27 levels else short term

On the other hand, dollar index rose to over three week high and traded at 86.29 yesterday after the Fed revised its estimate for interest rate hike. Today, a possible upward move towards 86.30-86.40 levels could be expected with support level of 85.90.

Traders may hold sell call for target 61.55 then 61.45 with revise stop loss of 61.75.(CMP 61.6325).


EURINR

Sell call given below 77.88 was success full with pair drop towards 77.62. Below 77.50 can add/hold for target 77.25 and below with revise stop loss of 77.62.  

Euro/dollar settled at $1.2612 compared to previous close of $1.2636/euro. The pair rose to as high as $1.2639/euro in intraday trades and fell to $1.2581/euro, lowest since Oct 7. Today, it may show $1.2513 next support levels. 

GBPINR

GBPINR witnessed biggest losing streak in the week settled with loss of 0.52% at 98.82 levels. Near term trend still looks negative unless it gives a closing above 99.30 and above it possible trend reversal could be expected towards upside level of 99.50- 99.80 levels.

Sell call given at 98.81 was successful with pair drop towards 98.5450.. Traders may sell below 98.52 for target 98.25 then 98.10 with stop loss of 98.64.

JPYINR


Today, a bunch of economic data and Bank of Japan policy may have strong impact on JPYINR.

 Sell strategy given from 56.70 was successful with pair hit 56.36 recent low second target is at 59.35.

 Below 56.35 hold/add for 56.20/56.00 with revise stop loss 56.45 (CMP 56.3925).


Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
Tentative
JPY
Monetary Policy Statement
-
-

10:30am
JPY
Housing Starts y/y
-17.10%
-12.50%
Negative
11:30am
JPY
BOJ Outlook Report
-
-
-
Tentative
JPY
BOJ Press Conference
-
-
-
12:30pm
EUR
German Retail Sales m/m
-0.80%
2.50%
Negative
1:15pm
EUR
French Consumer Spending m/m
-0.30%
0.70%
Negative
2:30pm
EUR
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
12.40%
12.30%
Positive
3:30pm
EUR
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
0.40%
0.30%
Positive

EUR
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
0.80%
0.80%
Neutral

EUR
Unemployment Rate
11.50%
11.50%
Neutral

EUR
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
-0.10%
-0.30%
Negative
6:00pm
USD
Core PCE Price Index m/m
0.10%
0.10%
Neutral

USD
Employment Cost Index q/q
0.60%
0.70%
Negative

USD
Personal Spending m/m
0.20%
0.50%
Negative

USD
Personal Income m/m
0.30%
0.30%
Neutral
7:15pm
USD
Chicago PMI
60.2
60.50
Negative
7:25pm
USD
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
86.4
86.40
Neutral

Impact: High Low Medium







More will Update soon... 

Thought for the day







Thursday, 30 October 2014

Update on Gold, Silver, Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Aluminium and Crude oil












Gold





As expected... Gold unable to breach the resistance level of 27300 and crashed vertically. Below 27100... our target was 26950---26800. Today, we recommended selling in Gold around 26900 mark

Now what to expect???

Two consecutive closes below 26800 will take to 26450---26300 and then to 25800 mark in day to come

On rise sell it!! Stop loss above 27100 on closing basis




Silver




Crashed and made a low of 37370. Our buying stop loss triggered of 37900. Below 37900...our target was 37700---37450

Now what to expect???

Two consecutive closes below 37450 will take to 36500---36200 and then to 35500 mark in days to come

On Comex division... Two consecutive closes below $17.00 will take to $15.80---$15.30. On rise sell it!! Stop loss above $17.60 INR 38600




Copper




Told to buy Copper around 412.50---412. Made a high of 422.55 and slipped. CMP 419

Now what to expect???

Support at 417 and Resistance at 420.50---424

Above 420.50 will see further upside rally till 422.50---424 mark. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 424 will take to ???

Else it could test its support level of 417 again. Close below 417 will see further panic till 414.50---412 level

Trade with levels only and wait for conformation





Nickel




Support at 930---900 and Resistance at 975

Two consecutive closes above 975 will take to 1005---1030+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 930---900 again

Further panic seen only weekly close below 900 mark

Risky traders can buy Nickel in panic around 930---920 with stop loss of 900 on closing basis

Others can trade with levels only




Zinc




Told to buy Zinc around 138 mark. Just made a high of 141.30

Now what to expect???

Support at 140 and Resistance at 141.50

Close above 141.50 will see further upside rally till 143---144+ mark in days to come else it could test its support again

Those are holding long can revise stop loss of 140 on closing basis

Others can trade with levels only





Aluminium




Too recommended buying in Aluminium around 122.50. Just made a high of 124.90

Now what to expect???

Support at 123.50 and Resistance at 125.50

Close above 125.50 will see further upside rally till 127.00---128.50+ mark else it could test its support level of 123.50 again

Those are holding short as per our level can revise stop loss of 123.50 on closing basis







Crude oil




Hope you all are holding long in Crude oil On Nymex division... Major support at $78. Buy and accumulate Crude oil in panic with stop loss of $78 on closing basis

On MCX division... Support at 4930---4850 while major hurdle at 5300

Anything seems will update via SMS

Trade with levels only... Any reversal seems will update via SMS





































More will update soon...