Tuesday, 27 September 2016

Currency Daily Outlook







USD/INR down, while dollar Index up on uncertainty post US presidential debate


Dollar/rupee open down and the dollar index traded tad up during early Asian trades Tuesday on uncertainty post US presidential debate and comments from key Federal Reserve officials including Chair Janet Yellen's speech due later this week.

Democrat Hillary Clinton accused Republican Donald Trump on Monday of having a long history of racist behavior during a heated presidential debate that could reshape the 2016 campaign for the White House.

Clinton and Trump interrupted each other throughout the debate on topics ranging from foreign policy to the economy. Trump said Clinton had very little to show for her many years in public life.

Clinton, a former secretary of state, and Trump, a real estate tycoon, slammed each other for the controversy stoked for years by Trump over whether President Barack Obama was born in the United States among other things, with none giving a clear indication about their foreign and economic policies.

Meanwhile, Yellen is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on regulation and supervision Thursday while Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis James Bullard is scheduled to speak in St Louis later Wednesday.



Technical, USDINR retraced from the day high 66.80 and settled at 66.6275 levels. Near term trend expect to remain bearish as since 30 June 2016, USDINR constructing falling wedge pattern which indicating for bearishness, but pair would need to trade below 66.50 in order to confirmation, else any rise towards 66.85-66.95 is expected to attract selling activities. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 67.25 on closing basis.




EUR-INR


Euro traded up for fourth straight session Monday after data released by Ifo showed German business confidence rose to two-year high in September.  German business climate survey showed Monday business confidence in Eurozone's largest economy improved much more than expected in September.

EURINR settled at 74.9475, up 0.15%. However, pair yet failed to trade above its immediate resistance 75.10 which is coinciding with 38.2% of Fibonacci Retracement.   

Hence, pair would need to trade above 75.10 in order to test 75.55-75.75; else any rise towards 75.05-75.10 could create probability for correction towards 74.50 again



GBP-INR


Pound traded lower for second-consecutive day Monday on looming worries about the aftermath of Britain's exit from the European Union after UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson commented that he expects Britain to start formal Brexit negotiations early 2017.

GBPINR extended its fall and settled at 86.22, down by 0.38%. A strong reversal from its short term MA and formation of long bearish candle stick is yet creating probability for correction in GBPINR.  On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 86.85 sustain trade above only will expect to test 87.25-87.55.



JPY-INR

Yen traded little changed Monday as investors await more clarity on the Bank of Japan's new "yield curve control" policy framework from Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda's comments later today.

JPYINR recovered more than 0.25% from the day low 66.04 and settled at 66.35 levels. On the EOD chart pair found strong 65.90 and tested 66.40.  A long bullish candle stick formation also creating probability for momentum gain in JPYINR.

 on the downside, crucial support is seen at 65.90 sustain trade below only will expect to test 65.65-65.40.





§  Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
5:20am
JPY
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
-
-


JPY
SPPI y/y
0.30%
0.40%
Negative
11:30am
EUR
German Import Prices m/m
-0.10%
0.10%
Negative
1:30pm
EUR
M3 Money Supply y/y
4.90%
4.80%
Positive

EUR
Private Loans y/y
1.90%
1.80%
Positive
3:30pm
GBP
CBI Realized Sales
8
9
Negative
6:30pm
USD
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
5.00%
5.10%
Negative
7:15pm
USD
Flash Services PMI
51.1
51
Positive
7:30pm
USD
CB Consumer Confidence
98.6
101.1
Negative

USD
Richmond Manufacturing Index
-2
-11
Negative
8:45pm
USD
FOMC Member Fischer Speaks
-
-
-




More will Update soon..

 

Thought for the day









Image result for Thought for the day 



Monday, 26 September 2016

Currency Outlook for weekending 30 Sep 2016




USD-INR Oct Future
Sell below 67.00 Target 66.75-66.52. Stop loss above 67.26

Dollar/Rupee 0.66% its biggest plunged since 27 March 2016, and settled at 66.6775 compared to previous week close of 67.1125 followed by  US Federal Reserve monetary policy that decided to keep its interest rates unchanged and signaled a slower pact of rate hike in coming years.    

However the fall in the currency pair was capped due to buying by nationalized banks likely on behalf of oil and defense importers.

 Technical, on the weekly chart USDINR broke its medium term support of 67.15 and formed a long bearish candle stick which points for bearishness in days to come. 

This week, 67.00 will act an immediate support and USDINR would need to trade below this level in order to test 66.75.-66.52, else any rise towards 67.40-67.45 likely to attract near term selling activities with stop loss above 67.85.



Dollar/Index

The greenback retraced from the weekly high 96.31 and tested 94.95 after the Federal Reserve left short term interest rates unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50%, the level it's been at since last December Wednesday and signaled that it still expect to raise them before year-end.  However, it rebounded against major rivals as they covered their short-position taking advantage of sharp dip on Thursday.  

 Technically, since 1 August 2016 to 15 Sep 2016 dollar index fluctuated in between gains and loss which is giving the shape of an inverted head & shoulder pattern. 

The neckline resistance is seen at 96.30 and a breakout on the closing basis will bring decent rally towards 97.50-99.50, else failure of the closing could hold consolidation in between 94.70-96.00 levels.




EUR-INR Oct Future 

Sell around 75.65-75.75 Target 75.10-74.65 Stop loss above 75.95

EUR-INR pared gains on Friday and tested 74.6575 before closing at 74.7950 after Euro zone economic growth hit a 20-month low pointing towards sluggish improvement in the economy.  Euro/dollar traded down as Euro zone private sector grew at the slowest pace in 20 months in September, flash data from Markit showed Friday. 

Technical, on the weekly chart EURINR trading in under symmetrical triangle (continuation) pattern Since February 2016 which saw a consolidation in between 77.94-75.63 levels. In near term trend expect to remain bearish unless EURINR give a closing above 76.45 which is coincide with resistance of triangle. On the other hand, sustain trade above 76.45 only open the door for upside move towards 77.45-78.00.



GBP-INR Oct Future 

Sell below 86.30 Target 85.80-85.45 Stop loss above 86.55


Pound remained worst performer among major currencies for second consecutive week, drop more than 2.10% as the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously kept its interest rates unchanged while indicated that it would cut them again before the end of the year. 

Technically, on the weekly chart GBPINR trading on its crucial support 86.35 which is coincide with its 14 August low and pair would need to trade below this level in order to test 84.50-84.00, else failure of the break down could result  strong reversal and currency could test 88.00-89.50 again.


JPY-INR Oct Future

Sell around 66.65-66.75 Target 66.20-65.90. Stop loss above 66.90


Yen retraced form the weekly high 66.70 and settled at 66.1550 levels as dollar weakened after the US Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged and projected a less hostile rise in the pace of the benchmark rates in coming years.   The Japanese market, which climbed nearly 2% on Wednesday following the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision to overhaul its monetary policy framework, is closed Thursday for a public holiday. 

Technically, on the weekly chart, JPYINR trading below its previous swing high while forming three rising candle stick pattern both of which creating probability for correction from every rise towards 66.20-66.40 levels. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 67.20 sustain trade above only will expect to test 67.70-68.10.



High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week


Date
Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Impact
26.09.16
 Tentative
JPY
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
-
-
-

1:30pm
EUR
German Ifo Business Climate
106.3
106.2
Positive

8:35pm
EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks
-
-
-
27.09.16
7:30pm
USD
CB Consumer Confidence
98.6
101.1
Negative
28.09.16
6:00pm
USD
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
-0.50%
1.30%
Negative

7:30pm
USD
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
-
-
-

8:00pm
EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks
-
-
-


USD
Crude Oil Inventories
-
-6.2M
-
29.09.16
12:05pm
JPY
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
-
-
-

6:00pm
USD
Final GDP q/q
1.30%
1.10%
Positive


USD
Unemployment Claims
260K
252K
Negative
30.09.16
1:30am
USD
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
-
-
-

7:15am
CNY
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
50.1
50
Positive

2:00pm
GBP
Current Account
-30.5B
-32.6B
Negative
01.10.16
6:30am
CNY
Manufacturing PMI
50.5
50.4
Positive
 

More will Update soon...